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Forecast insight: antidiabetics - diabetes market growth driven by epidemiological trends and rich pipeline

联系购买电话:010-82863480 公司名称:佐思信息 公司地址:北京市海淀区 苏州街 18 号院长远天地大厦 A2 座 1008-1 室(100080) Datamonitor expects the antidiabetics market to grow to $34.8 billion in 2019 for the seven major markets. Januvia will become the leading franchise from 2012 after patent expiry of Actos, with franchise sales reaching nearly $6 billion by 2019. Pipeline candidates will make up 30% of sales in 2019, with once-weekly GLP-1 agonists and new long-acting insulin analogs meeting success. * Description of the competitive landscape in antidiabetics across seven major markets with market definition and overview * Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2010-19 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan * Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the diabetes market * Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidiabetics agents and quantify the shift away from older therapies like glitazones and sulfonylureas The antidiabetics market in the seven major markets is expected to grow from $22,806 million in 2009 to $34,820 million in 2019, with a 4% CAGR. Growth is driven by the epidemiological expansion of the market, fuelled by the obesity epidemic and improved diagnosis rates. Januvia will be the leading oral antidiabetic agent after the patent expiry of Actos. Its relatively benign safety profile has led to rapid growth since launching in 2006, despite a poorer efficacy than other oral antidiabetics. Marketed and pipeline class competitors are seen as "me-too" drugs and will struggle to attract share away from Januvia. New products launched from the highly active antidiabetic pipeline will command 30% ($10,570m) of the market in 2019. Highest growth will be seen for the GLP-1 agonists, with the first once-weekly product, Bydureon, expected to take share from within the class, insulins and oral antidiabetics. * Quantify the future size of the antidiabetics market from 2010-2019 and identify opportunities for new products * Examine the future performance of leading antidiabetic brands and the growth of generics and insulin biosimilars * Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidiabetic agents TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview 1 Catalyst 1 Summary 1 About Datamonitor healthcare 2 About the Cardiovascular and diabetes pharmaceutical analysis team 2 Executive Summary 3 Strategic scoping and focus 3 Datamonitor insight into the disease market 3 Related reports 4 Upcoming related reports 4 1. MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 10 Market definition for this report 10 Countries and regions included in this report 10 Seven major market assessment 11 Rest of the World snapshot 31 2. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF DIABETES 35 Introduction 35 Key points 35 Disease definition, classification and diagnosis criteria 36 Strengths and weaknesses of our epidemiologic projections 38 Risk factors of type 1 diabetes 38 Global variation and temporal trends of incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus 40 Epidemiologic forecasting of type 1 diabetes mellitus 41 Results for type 1 diabetes incidence 43 Risk factors of type 2 diabetes 45 Co-morbidities of type 2 diabetes 46 Epidemiologic forecasting of type 2 diabetes mellitus 47 Results for type 2 diabetes prevalence 51 Discussion 59 3. BRAND DYNAMICS 61 Overview of the competitive landscape in antidiabetics 61 Basal insulins 63 Fast-acting insulins 69 Premixed insulins 78 Glitazones 80 DPP-4 inhibitors 87 GLP-1 agonists 96 Other classes 103 Bibliography 108 Journal papers 108 Websites 108 Datamonitor reports 109 Type 1 diabetes epidemiology references 109 Type 2 diabetes epidemiology references 111 Appendix A – Market Assumptions 115 New product launches 115 Patent expiries 117 Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 117 Forecast methodology 119 Appendix B 120 Contributing experts 120 Conferences attended 120 Report methodology 120 About Datamonitor 120 Disclaimer 124 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Antidiabetics sales ($m) by type of product (marketed versus pipeline) in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 13 Figure 2: Antidiabetics sales (SUm) by type of product (marketed versus pipeline) in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 14 Figure 3: Antidiabetics sales ($m) by type of product (branded versus generic) in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 15 Figure 4: Antidiabetics sales (SUm) by type of product (branded versus generic) in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 16 Figure 5: Antidiabetics sales ($m) by country in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 18 Figure 6: Antidiabetics sales (SUm) by country in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 19 Figure 7: Antidiabetics sales ($m) and historical and forecast growth (% CAGR) by region in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 20 Figure 8: Regional sales performance in the seven major diabetes markets, 2008–09 21 Figure 9: Antidiabetics sales ($m) by class in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 22 Figure 10: Antidiabetics sales (SUm) by class in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 23 Figure 11: Insulin sales ($m) for diabetes by class in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 24 Figure 12: Performance of the antidiabetic drug classes across the seven major markets, 2006–09 25 Figure 13: Performance of antidiabetic drug classes including pipeline drugs across the seven major markets, 2010–19 26 Figure 14: Leading antidiabetic brand revenues ($m) share of antidiabetics market across the seven major markets (%), 2009 and 2019 27 Figure 15: Sales of the top five antidiabetics (2009) and their generics in the seven major markets ($m), 2006–2019 29 Figure 16: Top five antidiabetic brands in the seven major markets and by region ($m), in 2006, 2009 and 2019 31 Figure 17: Seven major market, BRIC nations and the Rest of World sales ($m) for the antidiabetics market, 2009 33 Figure 18: Indexed annual sales for the antidiabetic market in the seven major markets, BRIC nations and the Rest of World, 2005–09 34 Figure 19: Indexed annual growth rate of the antidiabetic market in the seven major markets, BRIC nations and the Rest of World, 2005–09 35 Figure 20: Number of prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes in those aged 20–79 in the seven major markets, 2010–2020 54 Figure 21: Sales of the long-acting insulins class in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 65 Figure 22: Sales of Lantus for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 69 Figure 23: Sales of fast-acting insulins for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 72 Figure 24: Sales of NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 75 Figure 25: Sales of Humalog for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 78 Figure 26: Sales of premixed insulins for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 80 Figure 27: Sales of the glitazone class for diabetes by franchise in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 82 Figure 28: Sales of the Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 87 Figure 29: Sales of marketed and pipeline products in the DPP-4 inhibitor class for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 90 Figure 30: Sales of the Januvia franchise (including pipeline combinations) for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 96 Figure 31: Sales of GLP-1 agonists for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2006–2019 100 Figure 32: Sales of Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2009–2019 103 Figure 33: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitor sales for diabetes by country, 2006–2019 105 TABLE OF TABLES Table 1: Leading branded antidiabetic drug sales ($m) in the seven major markets, 2009 and 2019 28 Table 2: 1999 World Health Organization definitions of diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes 38 Table 3: Summary of sources used to forecast incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in those aged 0-14, published between 1993 and 2008 43 Table 4: Incident cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus in those aged 0–14 in the seven major markets, 2010–2020 45 Table 5: Incidence rates per 100,000 of type 1 diabetes mellitus in those aged 0–14 in the seven major markets, 2010–2020 46 Table 6: Summary of sources used in analyses of type 2 diabetes mellitus, published between 1999 and 2009 48 Table 7: Diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus in those aged 20–79, in the seven major markets, 2010–2020 52 Table 8: Percent of population aged 20–79 with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the seven major markets, 2010–2020 (%) 53 Table 9: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in the United States by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 55 Table 10: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in Japan by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 55 Table 11: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in France by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 56 Table 12: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in Germany by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 56 Table 13: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in Italy by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 57 Table 14: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in Spain by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 57 Table 15: Percent of type 2 diabetes cases in the UK by age group, 2010–2020 (%) 58 Table 16: Percent of undiagnosed diabetes in those aged 20-79 in the seven major markets, 2010 (%) 58 Table 17: Prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance in those aged 20–79 in the seven major markets in those aged 20–79 years, 2010–2020 59 Table 18: Prevalence rates of impaired glucose tolerance in those aged 20–79 in the seven major markets in those aged 20-79, 2010–2020 (%) 59 Table 19: Lantus – drug profile, 2010 66 Table 20: Sales forecast for Lantus in diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 70 Table 21: NovoRapid – drug profile, 2010 73 Table 22: Sales forecast for NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 74 Table 23: Humalog – drug profile, 2010 76 Table 24: Sales forecast for Humalog for diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 79 Table 25: Actos – drug profile, 2010 83 Table 26: Actoplus Met – drug profile, 2010 84 Table 27: Duetact – drug profile, 2010 84 Table 28: Sales forecast for Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 88 Table 29: Januvia – drug profile, 2010 91 Table 30: Janumet – drug profile, 2010 92 Table 31: Sales forecast for Januvia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 97 Table 32: Byetta – drug profile, 2010 101 Table 33: Sales forecast for Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–2019 104 Table 34: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for diabetes products in the seven major markets, 2010–19116 Table 35: Patent expiry or loss of market exclusivity dates for approved diabetes drugs in the seven major markets, 2010–19

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