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Twenty Five Years of Independent Information and Unbiased Advice on the Australian and NZ StockmarketsMarketAnalysis Circadian Technologies realises significant gain . 5 Cellnet Group's financial position improves, Summary and Recommended Investment Strategy.
Our Forecasts for the Australian and New Zealand stockmarkets are just Neutral to slightly Bullish, but many sharesoffer good value and there are signs that smaller company shares are starting to recover. Remain fully invested.
Over the medium to long term smaller company shares Stockmarket Forecasts
tend to outperform large company shares. There are several possible explanations for this: Large companies 60% (Neutral)
55% (Neutral)
tend to be mature businesses, so smaller companies have 65% (Bullish)
62% (Bullish)
greater long term growth potential. Or perhaps thereason is simply that large companies are widely followedand therefore fairly valued, while smaller companyshares are often neglected and tend to be under-valued.
If you pay less to buy a share (i.e. when it is under-valued) then your long term returns will be higher.
Smaller company shares, however, do not outperform larger company shares every year. In fact, NZ smaller company shares have just gone through a four yearperiod when they have under-performed NZ largercompany shares. The reason for this shorter termvariance in performance is fairly apparent. The fortunesof smaller companies tend to be more closely tied to thedomestic economy, while larger companies tend to haveexport markets and/or greater pricing power (e.g.
Auckland Airport, Telecom, the power companies) sosuffer less as the domestic economy slows.
Despite the poor performance of smaller company shares - a sector in which this newsletter often investsheavily - our Recommended Portfolio has far outperformed even the larger company indices over the So smaller companies have under-performed over the last four years anticipating the current economicslowdown. As we have written over recent months,these shares now offer good value, should experiencestronger profit growth when the economy eventuallyrecovers and will probably outperform larger companyshares over the next couple of years as the marketanticipates the next economic upturn.
There are clear signs that this recovery by smaller company shares has already started, with this sector strongly outperforming larger company shares over thelast four months.
"Performance Forecasts" are computer generated predictions of the relative future price performance of a company's shares over the next three to six months.
Performance Forecasts are calculated for every listed NZ share (except Investment Trusts) on a rating scale using the letters "A" (Highest potential for capital
appreciation over the next 3-6 months ), "B" (Above Average), "C" (Average), "D" (Below Average) and "E" (Lowest). These predictions are NOT buy or sell
recommendations, but can be useful to help time planned purchases or sales, or to identify shares worthy of further study and analysis.
Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd CDL Investments lifted revenues 27.0% to $11.7 million
two adjoining sites in Christchurch with a total area of for the six months to 30 June. Profits were 22.1% higher at $3,797,000 (1.8 cents per share) and there was a cash Historically CDL Investments has focused on the residential market but to “further maximise returns on 58 sections were sold in the period, down from 66 in our land assets” has undertaken a feasibility study on “a the first half of 2005 and 77 in the first half of 2004. The number of options” for unspecified “diversification and company reports “an oversupply of sections in some areas and market segments”, a “current downward market Renaissance Corporation reports revenues up
cycle” and difficult trading conditions. Nevertheless, 11.4% to $77.5 million for the six months to 30 June, CDL Investments has continued to trade profitably with profits up 18.5% to $2,293,000 (5.9 cents per despite the decline in the number of sections sold over share). The interim dividend will be 12.5% higher at 4.5 the last two years. The company remains “confident we cents per share (plus full imputation tax credits).
can deliver another positive result for 2006”.
The company produced a cash operating deficit of The company holds conditional contracts to acquire $4.6 million - mainly owing to (Continued on Page 4) Portfolio of Recommended Investments The average Total Return (i.e. both Capital Gains/Losses plus Dividends received) of all current investments from initial recommendation is +159.3%.
This is equal to an average annual rate of +29.8%, based upon the length of time each position has been held.
The average annual rate of gain of ALL recommendations (both the 37 current and 133 closed out) is +32.3%, compared with a market gain of +8.8%(by the SRC Total Return Index).
CURRENT ADVICE is either Buy, Hold+, Hold, Hold- or Sell. Hold+ indicates the most attractive shares not rated as Buy. Hold- indicates relativelyless attractive issues.
* Initial Recommendation Prices adjusted for Share Splits, Bonus and Cash Issues.
Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Recommended Investments (Cont'd from Page 3) services can vary significantly on a month to month Renaissance Corporation sees its competitive Campbell Brothers has increased its holding in CCI
advantage in its “ability to manage brands”, Holdings from 9.99% to 11.14% through on-market
“warehousing and distribution” and “expertise in systems, particularly online transactional systems”. It Campbell Brothers shares have quadrupled in value has expanded its IT brands to include products from over the last three years, but market conditions remain Canon, Tandberg, Foundry and Allot - and it is also
favourable, the Laboratory Services business has a looking to expand into non-IT durable goods, including strong competitive advantage and growing economies of scale as it expands. So we continue to rate the shares Renaissance Corporation is continuing to forecast an a strong “Hold+” and are in no hurry to realise profits.
“approximately 20%” increase in profits for the full year Cellnet Group has briefly reported for the year to 30
June. Revenues rose 7% to $560 million but, as expected, Australian Shares
profits fell 76% to $1.6 million (about 3 cents per share).
(This section is in Australian currency, unless stated.) Most importantly the restructuring and stock reduction AJ Lucas Group has acquired McDermott Drilling
has produced a cash operating surplus of $33 million - Pty, a 35 year old business with “substantial experience
compared with a deficit last year of $18 million which and expertise in vertical and surface to inseam drilling” lifted interest bearing debt to dangerously high levels.
for coal mining, coal methane and other industries.
In July Cellnet Group reduced its stock levels by a Campbell Brothers has acquired Swedish based
further $18 million, with Telecom NZ taking over
Analytica AB for $25 million in cash (plus a future
ownership of inventory under the extended distribution payment of up to $3 million based on performance to 2009). The company has two laboratories in Sweden, Cellnet Group has yet to publish the full details of plus customer service centres in Norway and Denmark this result which will require further analysis to determine and customers throughout Europe. This acquisition, the company's improved financial situation. The plus last year's purchase of Ecochem in the Czech
company, however, states that its balance sheet and Republic, “provides the depth of management and working capital situation are “now in excellent shape” technical staff” to further grow the business in Europe and it is “well advanced in its review of potential where it will “now concentrate on organic expansion”, acquisition targets” which can be funded from “existing but perhaps with “some small acquisitions”.
Analytica is mainly involved in environmental testing This result and comments indicate that the company with “world renowned abilities in analyzing ultra low has successfully restructured and is now in a position to trace levels of metals in seawater, waste water, potable seek growth in the business. The shares appear to be in water and geological materials”. This technology will the early stages of a new uptrend, with a Relative be transferred throughout the group's laboratories “in Strength rating of +3.3%, ranked 33, so we rate them a other geographic regions to sell these capabilities to a “Buy” for both capital appreciation and a high income as global market”. This is the type of benefit that gives dividends are likely to be re-instated this year.
Campbell Brothers a major competitive advantage in The Laboratory Services division now has about 45% of its revenues from assays and chemical analysisand around 50% from environmental services. Thedivision has a 30% global market share in mineralanalysis but only 1% in environmental work - so there isstill excellent potential for expansion! Campbell Brothers reports that “strong market conditions have continued into the first quarter” of thecurrent financial year and predict that the half year profitto September 2006 will be 40-50% higher than last year.
The company does warn, however, that “demand for our Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Centennial Coal has downgraded its profit forecast
ID projects which should contribute to revenues and for the year to 30 June 2006 from $20-26 million to profits in the new financial year (i.e. to June 2007) and $16-17.5 million, owing to delays at Newstan (which suffered a pre-tax loss of $48 million for the year) and In late July the company signed a $14.4 million, six- localised poor roof conditions at Tahmoor. This level of year contract to provide managed payment services for profitability is extremely low, but should improve the Bank of Queensland. Keycorp will acquire all of
significantly next year so the company plans to maintain the EFTPOS terminals used by the bank's merchant customers and progressively replace them with new Centennial Coal announced a strategic review of its terminals and software. Keycorp is also seeking to ownership of the Newstan and several other smaller finalise a third contract of this type before the end of mines in February. After receiving indicative bids, the company has selected a short list of bidders who are Keycorp has settled a tax dispute relating to a Research currently conducting due diligence. Final bids are & Development syndicate established in 1994. Keycorp expected before the end of September, when a decision will pay $3,220,000 which is at the lower end of a regarding this sale - estimated at around $200 million - potential liability of up to $15 million. Keycorp will now claim against the parties who provided legal advice Circadian Technologies owns 22.8% (about 28.5
million shares) of listed Zenyth Therapeutics which is
LongReach Group and Allied Technologies have
to be acquired by CSL via a scheme of arrangement.
adjusted the terms of their merger, with the new terms Under this scheme Zenith Therapeutics' shareholders being slightly less favourable for the LongReach Group will receive 86 cents cash per share plus the distribution investors. Allied Technologies will now issue one share of listed Avexa shares held by Zenith Therapeutics.
for every 3 LongReach Group shares, instead of for This will be approximately one Avexa share for every every 2½ shares. It will also issue one convertible note for every 3 LongReach Group notes, with the conversion So Circadian Technologies will receive around $24.5 price increased from 30 cents to 36 cents.
million in cash plus 4.75 million Avexa shares. This Effectively, LongReach Group is paying 20% more takeover offers a premium of about 80% over market to acquire cashed up Allied Technologies, with the value, boosting Circadian Technologies' net asset value reverse takeover consolidating every three shares into by around $12 million or about 30 cents per share.
one new share (and three notes into one new note).
Circadian Technologies' direct holding in Avexa M.Y.O.B. has acquired New Zealand based Comacc
will rise from 19.4 million shares (13.9% of the company) for $7 million. Comacc is a supplier of payroll to around 24.2 million shares (17.3%), while its cash management solutions for small and medium sized holding will increase from about $18.5 million to $43 businesses. The company generates annual revenues in excess of NZ$5 million and earnings (before interest, We are upgrading Circadian Technologies shares to depreciation and tax) of around NZ$2 million - making this a reasonably attractively priced acquisition.
Namoi Cotton Co-operative expects the Australian
cotton crop to be around 10% lower this year but to ginaround 795,000 bales (up 2%) and to market about690,000 bales (down 4%).
Sonnet Corporation has announced an agreement
with Hewlett-Packard Australia to market to large
corporations and Government agencies. Sonnet
Corporation will contribute consulting services and
Asset Management specialisation, while HP will provide
products and services.
Sonnet Corporation's June quarter cashflow statement shows revenues of $7.1 million and a small operatingcash surplus of $191,000. This is down on the June 2005 International All Sports' cash flow report shows
quarter - which recorded revenues of $13.5 million and June quarter receipts up 35.0% to $244.7 million a $3.0 million surplus - but an improvement on the compared with the same quarter of 2005. Receipts for previous three quarters which have produced cash the full year are up 48.3% to $872.2 million. There was also an annual net cash surplus of $6.3 million, compared Technology One reports that both the Queensland
with a cash deficit of $1.0 million in 2005.
University of Technology and Melbourne's La Trobe
The company also reports “continued increase in University have each signed multi-million dollar
client receipts and trading turnover” and “trading profits” contracts to use its Student Management software. These contributing to its “strong cash reserves” of $29.6 million.
systems will be installed over the next one to two years.
Keycorp had downgraded its earnings (before
UXC has purchased Infrastructure Construction
interest, depreciation and tax) for the year ended 30 June Pty, a civil construction business specialising in
2006 from $10-13 million to $9.5 million.
Horizontal Directional Drilling for utilities and Smartcard sales were weak for the quarter, although telecommunications companies. The company has a the company has been working on EMV and government “strong presence in NSW” (Continued on Page 6) Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Recommended Investments (Cont'd from Page 5) Recommended Portfolio to reflect the 40 cents capital and will now expand into other states.
repayment. If an investor re-invested that cash on- UXC has sold Neopurple - a small industrial and
market to buy additional shares then one could have graphic design studio owned since 1998 but which is increased shareholdings by around 28%. So we are assuming that an investor can have 28% more shares for Vision Systems has changed the conversion terms of
their initial investment in the company. That effectively its remaining convertible notes to reflect the recent 40 lowers our initial purchase price per share from 68.5 cents capital repayment. Each note will now convert into 1.2821 ordinary shares. The notes can be converted Of course, investors over-weighted in Vision Systems any June or December until December 2008.
shares should probably re-invest in some other portfolio We have also adjusted our purchase price (and share, but otherwise it is attractive to acquire further accumulated dividends) for Vision Systems in our Computer Selections of NZ Shares based upon our Comprehensive Share Selection Criteria For an explanation of this table see the Share Selection Methods report sent to all new subscribers or available from our website. These shares are not formal“buy” and “sell” recommendations, but the “Under-Valued”, “Best Performing” and “Income” shares should be considered for purchase, while the “Over-Valued” and “Worst Performing” shares can generally be sold to release money for re-investment in more attractive shares.
Brokers Following NTA Equity ity Ratio Yield Ratio Brokers Following NTA Equity ity Ratio Yield Ratio UNDER-VALUED SHARES: Lowest Price/Sales, Yld > 0, Rel Strength > 0 INSIDER BUYING: Most Insider Buying, Relative Strength > 0 OVER-VALUED SHARES: Highest Price/Sales Ratios, Relative Strength < 0 Warehouse Group 470 +11.9 +3.3 12 0-1 6 4.1 BEST PERFORMING SHARES: Strongest Shares, P/E < 20, P/S < 1.0 WORST PERFORMING SHARES: Weakest Shares, P/S Ratio > 0.25, Yield < Twice Average INCOME SHARES: Highest Yields, Capitalisation > NZ$100 million 0INSIDER SELLING: Most Insider Selling, Relative Strength < 0 Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Computer Selections of Australian Shares based upon our Comprehensive Share Selection Criteria For an explanation of this table see the Share Selection Methods report sent to all new subscribers or available from our website. These shares are not formal“buy” and “sell” recommendations, but the “Under-Valued”, “Best Performing” and “Income” shares should be considered for purchase, while the “Over-Valued” and “Worst Performing” shares can generally be sold to release money for re-investment in more attractive shares.
Brokers Following NTA Equity ity Ratio Yield Ratio Brokers Following NTA Equity ity Ratio Yield Ratio OVER-VALUED SHARES: Highest Price/Sales Ratios, Relative Strength < 0 Energy Resource 1101 -4.6 -5.1 64 0-0 1 3.9 STW Comm Group 274 -4.8 -3.7 65 1-0 5 3.9 INSIDER SELLING: Most Insider Selling, Relative Strength < 0 WORST PERFORMING SHARES: Weakest Shares, P/S Ratio > 0.25, Yield < Twice Average Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Australian Warrant / Option Analysis 34 25 1-3 18.0 13.8 +31 0.57 2.03 1.00 +21 14 10 2-10 8.6 8.0 +8 0.66 1.48 1.00 +11 15 20 3-1 4.3 5.3 -20 0.57 1.85 1.00 +17 Diatreme Resources 26 25 1-2 12.0 9.3 +30 0.76 1.98 1.00 +35 Adv Ocular Systems 10 110 1-10 1.5 0.2 +754 0.79 3.13 1.00 +273 Advanced Healthcare 4 12 1-4 0.5 0.0 +999 0.23 9.99 1.00 +160 7 15 1-1 0.2 1.2 -83 0.98 2.23 1.00 +116 Dynasty Metals Aust 23 20 1-6 7.0 10.2 -31 0.83 1.68 1.00 +13 Allco Max Securities 90 100 0-1 0.3 0.0 +999 0.17 9.99 1.00 +999 Eagle Bay Resources 6 15 2-10 3.0 1.1 +162 0.67 2.07 1.00 +52 14 20 0-3 4.0 0.3 +999 0.58 7.53 1.00 +764 13 20 3-1 5.0 0.8 +522 0.21 5.11 1.00 +24 Anitsense Therapeutic 3 20 0-5 0.2 0.0 +999 0.62 7.48 1.00 +999 12 20 1-9 3.0 6.4 -53 1.32 1.38 1.00 +45 147 124 0-0 26.0 0.0 +999 0.40 7.48 1.00 +999 15 30 2-10 5.2 3.4 +51 0.59 2.13 1.00 +35 220 30 1-10 200.0 194.3 +3 0.86 1.12 1.00 Argonaut Resources 12 30 0-10 1.8 0.2 +999 0.57 5.24 1.00 +239 4 20 1-4 0.4 0.1 +511 0.69 3.83 1.00 +239 58 75 0-3 2.3 0.5 +379 0.37 9.99 1.00 +227 12 20 1-4 2.5 0.5 +397 0.37 5.04 1.00 +60 4 32 0-7 0.1 0.0 +999 0.67 9.23 1.00 +999 16 20 0-10 1.1 2.4 -55 0.64 3.03 1.00 +45 156 140 0-9 31.0 31.0 +0 0.35 3.75 1.00 +13 20 20 1-7 6.0 7.5 -20 0.71 1.89 1.00 +18 13 150 1-2 0.2 0.4 -44 1.09 2.81 1.00 +714 Exco Resources NL 27 20 0-0 5.5 0.4 +999 0.72 2.81 1.00 -100 23 20 0-3 6.5 7.9 -18 1.47 2.09 1.00 +76 Fall River Resources 14 25 1-3 4.0 1.0 +315 0.50 3.84 1.00 +79 Australis Mining Corp. 12 20 0-4 2.7 0.0 +999 0.16 1.00 1.00 +577 3 10 2-1 0.7 0.3 +113 0.75 2.36 1.00 +94 5 25 0-4 0.5 0.0 +999 1.15 5.28 1.00 +999 17 30 0-6 6.5 1.5 +333 0.89 3.36 1.00 +361 9 18 0-9 1.0 0.5 +90 0.72 3.65 1.00 +180 7 25 1-4 2.0 0.6 +253 0.87 2.60 1.00 +191 17 20 0-3 2.5 1.7 +45 0.79 4.24 1.00 +207 31 20 0-0 9.5 108.6 -91 0.75 1.17 1.00 -100 40 20 0-10 23.5 21.0 +12 0.58 1.78 1.00 +12 20 25 0-11 8.0 3.9 +107 0.67 2.72 1.00 +73 Global Mining Invest 135 100 0-3 33.5 36.5 6 30 0-10 0.8 0.0 +999 0.77 4.53 1.00 +584 6 20 0-1 0.1 0.0 +999 0.81 1.00 1.00 +999 8 15 0-6 0.5 0.2 +133 0.70 4.85 1.00 +327 3 32 1-7 0.5 0.1 +575 0.96 2.73 1.00 +397 Golden State Petrol. 47 65 0-4 8.0 2.0 +297 0.62 5.59 1.00 +287 Biolayer Corporation 16 35 1-2 3.9 1.6 +151 0.70 2.97 1.00 +114 147 20 1-4 115.0 129.6 -11 1.05 1.12 1.00 7 20 1-0 0.5 0.9 -43 0.94 2.55 1.00 +177 22 20 1-4 6.9 12.2 -44 1.26 1.40 1.00 +18 17 50 0-11 0.9 0.3 +245 0.63 4.64 1.00 +242 27 50 1-3 6.0 1.6 +270 0.49 3.97 1.00 +79 17 22 2-5 7.0 5.5 +28 0.63 1.92 1.00 +26 14 20 0-10 2.5 6.9 -64 1.70 1.45 1.00 +77 4 20 5-8 3.2 0.8 +316 0.57 1.92 1.00 +38 17 20 0-4 2.5 1.1 +122 0.52 5.64 1.00 +132 4 125 4-1 0.2 0.0 +999 0.57 3.47 1.00 +135 43 55 0-2 0.3 0.0 +999 0.27 9.99 1.00 +648 9 20 0-4 0.2 0.0 +999 0.50 9.99 1.00 +999 3 10 0-10 0.4 0.1 +560 0.78 3.97 1.00 +383 18 20 2-4 6.5 7.5 -14 0.74 1.67 1.00 +19 17 20 2-4 9.0 7.8 +15 0.85 1.54 1.00 +27 14 20 3-4 5.0 6.3 -21 0.72 1.57 1.00 +19 32 40 0-8 5.0 11.3 -56 1.30 1.82 1.00 +67 7 25 0-4 0.2 0.0 +999 0.77 8.06 1.00 +999 10 14 0-7 2.5 1.0 +153 0.72 3.52 1.00 +153 20 20 1-7 9.2 7.3 +26 0.73 1.87 1.00 +29 13 15 0-9 4.3 3.4 +26 0.87 2.29 1.00 +69 20 65 1-10 3.4 2.2 +54 0.74 2.48 1.00 +98 18 25 0-7 0.5 2.1 -76 0.71 3.43 1.00 +82 15 20 1-7 7.5 2.4 +216 0.46 3.05 1.00 +47 Hillgrove Resources 23 20 0-4 4.5 4.1 +9 0.50 3.99 1.00 +29 24 20 1-1 8.0 9.0 -11 0.70 2.02 1.00 +15 4 100 0-5 10.0 0.0 +999 0.95 1.00 1.00 +999 4 25 2-4 2.0 0.5 +290 0.88 2.09 1.00 +129 Hunter Hall Global Val107 100 0-8 6.2 11.0 -44 0.11 8.61 1.00 Cape Lambert Iron Ore 42 30 2-2 23.5 21.1 +11 0.61 1.66 1.00 +12 Cardia Technologies 3 10 1-4 0.5 0.2 +109 0.86 2.61 1.00 +177 85 100 1-2 2.4 0.8 +220 0.09 9.99 1.00 +18 47 25 0-0 20.5 0.8 +999 0.48 9.99 1.00 -100 23 20 0-11 8.0 7.8 +3 0.70 2.18 1.00 +24 13 50 0-5 4.0 0.0 +999 0.67 8.85 1.00 +999 13 20 0-10 3.3 0.3 +999 0.37 6.76 1.00 +111 Indigo Pacific Capital 86 150 0-7 1.5 0.2 +645 0.33 9.99 1.00 +164 4 20 1-4 0.6 0.0 +999 0.00 9.99 1.00 +278 Chemgenex Pharm. 51 125 3-7 20.0 8.2 +145 0.48 2.42 1.00 +34 18 20 1-3 4.0 2.4 +66 0.36 3.81 1.00 +29 12 40 1-4 0.3 0.5 -42 0.67 3.39 1.00 +148 16 20 2-1 3.0 7.8 -62 1.01 1.47 1.00 +21 Citrofresh International 18 25 1-9 6.8 5.2 +31 0.75 1.99 1.00 +42 18 20 0-2 2.1 1.9 +9 0.98 4.13 1.00 +305 385 100 0-0 270.0 5.2 +999 0.27 1.99 1.00 -100 17 20 0-5 5.4 2.5 +113 0.79 3.31 1.00 +162 15 20 1-11 4.9 4.7 +3 0.73 1.90 1.00 +33 50 32 0-8 23.0 21.8 +6 0.79 1.95 1.00 +18 16 20 0-9 3.5 2.5 +42 0.68 3.00 1.00 +74 Continental Goldfields 10 20 1-1 2.0 1.8 +11 0.90 2.32 1.00 +107 83 100 0-5 1.3 0.4 +209 0.20 9.99 1.00 +69 12 20 1-9 3.0 1.8 +63 0.55 2.74 1.00 +45 Louisiana Petroleum 10 20 2-8 3.4 2.8 +20 0.69 1.91 1.00 +38 Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd 1 20 3-6 0.2 0.3 -29 1.24 1.46 1.00 +146 Red River Resources 16 20 3-7 7.0 10.0 -30 0.93 1.30 1.00 +16 11 28 1-9 1.7 1.9 -12 0.82 2.16 1.00 +81 147 180 0-6 19.0 0.0 +999 0.00 9.99 1.00 +83 2 10 3-3 0.8 0.2 +246 0.58 2.48 1.00 +61 Malachite Resources 22 20 2-0 8.1 9.5 -14 0.70 1.72 1.00 +14 Regis Resources NL 11 20 5-8 2.6 4.1 -37 0.50 1.72 1.00 +14 8 25 0-3 0.7 0.0 +999 0.59 9.99 1.00 +999 2 40 1-5 0.3 0.0 +999 0.82 4.23 1.00 +752 18 20 0-9 6.0 4.0 +51 0.71 2.65 1.00 +63 2 15 0-5 0.6 0.0 +999 0.82 9.39 1.00 +999 Maximus Resources 15 20 1-10 3.8 3.5 +8 0.56 2.38 1.00 +29 20 20 1-4 8.0 5.4 +47 0.53 2.46 1.00 +29 70 20 0-5 44.0 50.5 -13 0.54 1.39 1.00 -19 Richfield International 22 20 1-3 2.5 7.3 -66 0.60 2.19 1.00 26 25 0-4 4.0 3.3 +20 0.49 4.66 1.00 +47 8 10 0-1 0.5 0.1 +486 0.75 9.99 1.00 +999 18 75 0-4 0.7 0.0 +999 0.52 9.99 1.00 +999 14 26 2-9 1.0 2.3 -57 0.50 2.49 1.00 +29 3 15 0-4 0.2 0.0 +999 0.60 9.99 1.00 +999 20 30 3-3 7.4 10.6 -30 0.92 1.38 1.00 +22 8 25 0-3 0.3 0.0 +653 1.10 5.64 1.00 +999 20 20 1-3 7.0 4.2 +67 0.41 3.11 1.00 +28 Millepde International 4 15 1-6 1.0 0.4 +136 0.83 2.52 1.00 +144 20 20 2-11 8.2 6.8 +21 0.41 2.15 1.00 +13 15 20 1-10 3.5 4.7 -26 0.71 1.96 1.00 +28 19 20 1-7 5.5 8.3 -33 0.88 1.67 1.00 +20 138 115 1-5 50.0 44.3 +13 0.43 2.44 1.00 +13 350 300 0-8 191.0 70.1 +172 0.28 4.16 1.00 +66 Minerals Commodities 20 30 0-10 3.0 2.1 +40 0.62 3.42 1.00 +82 Safety Medical Prod 19 20 2-4 6.5 6.2 +5 0.49 2.12 1.00 +15 5 10 1-10 0.8 0.5 +67 0.55 2.94 1.00 +59 8 30 1-10 1.7 1.1 +53 0.84 2.24 1.00 +112 Saracen Mineral Hold. 37 10 6-10 30.0 31.8 4 10 0-10 0.4 0.0 +999 0.46 7.72 1.00 +269 Saracen Mineral Hold. 37 13 3-3 15.0 27.5 -45 0.59 1.28 1.00 70 100 3-10 18.0 21.9 -18 0.46 2.01 1.00 +15 7 20 1-9 2.1 1.0 +118 0.79 2.32 1.00 +98 7 20 0-5 0.1 0.0 +179 0.79 5.99 1.00 +999 7 30 0-1 0.1 0.0 +999 0.53 9.99 1.00 +999 Murchison Holdings 137 100 2-4 45.0 56.3 -20 0.34 2.13 1.00 Souls Private Equity 19 30 3-4 4.0 1.3 +219 0.22 4.64 1.00 +20 27 20 0-7 13.0 10.8 +20 0.98 1.93 1.00 +46 15 25 2-8 2.7 1.3 +113 0.32 3.73 1.00 +27 8 20 1-4 1.6 0.6 +169 0.64 3.20 1.00 +107 11 20 0-7 2.0 0.6 +259 0.69 4.20 1.00 +228 NGM Resources Ltd 11 20 0-7 2.0 0.6 +259 0.69 4.20 1.00 +228 4 20 0-1 0.1 0.0 +999 0.60 9.99 1.00 +999 Structural Monitoring 13 20 0-8 3.0 0.8 +277 0.60 4.19 1.00 +150 Navigator Resources 23 20 0-10 8.3 6.9 +21 0.66 2.35 1.00 +32 Neptune Marine Serv. 31 20 4-4 12.0 20.5 -41 0.63 1.34 1.00 7 15 2-10 3.9 2.0 +93 0.67 1.92 1.00 +40 New Privateer Hold. 430 115 0-4 55.0 317.6 -83 0.96 1.35 1.00 -94 Northwest Resources 23 20 1-5 11.0 8.8 +25 0.65 1.97 1.00 +23 4 10 0-6 0.5 0.0 +999 0.66 6.03 1.00 +589 14 20 4-1 6.5 7.8 -16 0.84 1.35 1.00 +18 20 100 1-8 4.0 0.4 +997 0.62 3.76 1.00 +169 2 20 1-5 0.2 0.3 -41 1.27 1.96 1.00 +350 Tennant Creek Gold 25 15 0-9 15.0 11.7 +28 0.69 1.91 1.00 +28 16 25 1-4 2.7 1.9 +46 0.54 3.14 1.00 +55 21 30 1-9 12.0 4.5 +165 0.60 2.36 1.00 +51 55 125 2-9 0.5 4.3 -88 0.40 3.33 1.00 +35 11 20 0-7 2.4 0.8 +200 0.84 3.45 1.00 +266 114 100 1-10 12.0 26.6 -55 0.18 3.71 1.00 20 50 1-10 4.0 4.0 +1 0.82 2.08 1.00 +74 2 14 1-6 0.1 0.6 -83 1.67 1.48 1.00 +310 17 20 1-4 3.0 1.8 +65 0.30 4.48 1.00 +25 25 20 2-9 15.0 20.9 -28 1.55 1.10 1.00 +13 10 20 0-4 1.2 0.1 +739 0.79 5.70 1.00 +999 Uranium Exploration 31 20 1-7 13.0 19.2 -32 1.09 1.36 1.00 16 20 0-3 2.0 0.6 +223 0.60 6.43 1.00 +306 18 20 1-10 8.0 6.9 +16 0.74 1.81 1.00 +27 7 20 3-4 3.2 1.1 +189 0.53 2.39 1.00 +42 2 12 1-7 0.4 0.0 +999 0.54 5.43 1.00 +251 Pan Pacific Petroleum 16 15 0-10 5.6 3.1 +81 0.45 3.30 1.00 +41 6 25 1-9 1.3 0.7 +100 0.87 2.32 1.00 +143 8 20 0-4 0.2 0.1 +153 0.90 5.41 1.00 +999 Westralian G & Power 11 25 3-1 3.2 5.3 -39 0.98 1.43 1.00 +36 14 30 1-3 1.5 0.4 +284 0.47 4.65 1.00 +97 19 25 0-10 2.8 2.0 +41 0.51 3.85 1.00 +58 29 20 2-9 17.0 12.7 +34 0.33 2.01 1.00 +10 16 50 1-4 1.5 0.9 +76 0.70 3.24 1.00 +147 50 25 1-0 36.5 28.1 +30 0.69 1.65 1.00 +23 20 20 2-3 5.6 4.2 +32 0.25 3.36 1.00 +12 Zelos Resources NL 17 20 1-4 5.2 5.1 +3 0.77 2.04 1.00 +37 86 20 0-3 68.0 66.3 +3 0.82 1.30 1.00 +10 12 20 0-3 0.5 1.0 -49 1.24 3.42 1.00 +910 Portland Orthopaedics 34 25 2-3 22.0 17.5 +26 0.65 1.61 1.00 +15Prairie Downs Metals 32 25 1-9 15.5 15.7 7 20 0-3 0.1 0.0 +999 0.55 9.99 1.00 +999 Prosperity Resources 9 12 0-9 2.0 1.2 +65 0.64 3.26 1.00 +80Quantum Resources 4 10 5-8 1.0 3.3 -69 1.10 1.15 1.00 +18Quantum Resources 4 10 4-2 1.0 2.8 -64 1.10 1.23 1.00 +25 26 30 0-5 6.1 4.2 +46 0.84 3.10 1.00 +130 Ramelius Resources 19 20 1-4 6.4 5.4 +19 0.64 2.22 1.00 +31 Ramelius Resources 19 18 0-10 6.2 5.1 +23 0.64 2.50 1.00 +35 209 170 0-1 39.0 40.1 -3 0.22 5.2 1.00 +0% 131 100 1-4 35.0 40.8 -14 0.18 3.1 1.00 +2% 79 100 1-4 7.0 4.1 +69 0.22 6.6 1.00 +26% Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Australian Warrant / Option Analysis Aurox Resources (codes AXO and AXOO).
Equigold (EQI and EQIO).
Aurox Resources placed 2,000,000 shares at 55 cents in Equigold has completed the Bankable Feasibility Study May to raise $1.1 million. These options still have 14 for the Bonikro Gold Project in Ivory Coast and the months until their final exercise/expiry date and we are board of directors has approved the development of this happy to hold to seek further gains.
The capital cost of development will be around Bounty Industries (codes BNT and BNTO).
US$56 million - plus another US$18 million if the Bounty Industries has confirmed its forecast of a $5 company buys its own mining fleet rather than using a million (6.2 cents per share) net profit for the year ended contract miner. The mine should produce around 785,000 June 2006 - although only $1 million will be from ounces of gold over a 6¾ year life at a cash cost of mining and $4 million of profit from the sale of equipment.
US$251/ounce. This will produce a net after tax return Profits are then forecast to rise to $7 million (7.1 cents of US$74 million (at an average gold price of US$500) per share) - all from coal mining - in the year to June to US$125 million (at a gold price of US$600) for Those forecasts would appear to justify a significantly Gold is currently trading around US$645, which higher value for Bounty Industries shares but there are would yield an after tax profit around US$150 million.
some inconsistencies. For example, in July the company The 6¾ year mine can likely be extended by using placed a further 15,000,000 shares at 20 cents to raise $3 this equipment and plant to mine and process other gold million to finance future growth. This money will no doubt help the company expand, but issuing new shares The company has an indicative offer of an A$50 at only 2.8 times current year forecast profits will not million loan to partially finance the mine and expects to increase shareholder wealth. The placement at such a finalise this financing this month. In addition, the low valuation suggests that the market - and the directors company has A$39 million in cash and will receive - have doubts about the $7 million profit forecast (or that another A$59 million when the 42 million listed options earnings per share will be diluted by further low priced are exercised at $1.40 in May next year. Equigold will share issues). Raising additional finance at such a low seek to finalise political risk insurance cover in valuation dilutes the interests of the existing shareholders who would do better with slower growth, rather than Preliminary site work is expected to start in November effectively selling off part of the company to new or December, with the main site construction starting in investors at a P/E ratio of just 2.8.
January 2007. Open pit mining is scheduled to begin in Our options have just over 4 months until their final September 2007, plant commissioning in January 2008 exercise/expiry date of 31 December 2006. Each option and gold production in February 2008.
can be exercised to buy a new share at 20 cents, so the Equigold options have only nine months (i.e. until 31 market price of the shares needs to appreciate in the near May 2007) until their final exercise/expiry date at which future if the options are to have any significant value.
time we have the right to buy shares at 140 cents. Now Option leverage is a very high 3.84 times, so any that the company is to develop its Bonikro Gold Project fluctuation in the share price would have a large impact the market may re-rate the value of the company's on the value of the options. “Hold”.
Cool or Cosy (codes COS and COSO).
Equigold is a sound gold mining company that will The company reports a poor second half (to June 2006) significantly expand its gold production with this project owing to a mild summer which lowered demand for air- - so is an attractive investment in this sector.
conditioning, reduced consumer spending and higher We rate the options a speculative “Buy” owing to overheads as the company expands its air-conditioning their short remaining life of only nine months - but they business nationally. The second half is expected to be do offer a very high 3.75 times leverage over this period.
“lower than the first half” profits - which was down 75% - so the annual result could be 70-75% lower at just$430,000 to $520,000 (1.0-1.2 cents per share).
Unfortunately, this company's recent financial performance has been so poor that the share price hasfallen to a level where it is becoming more likely that theoptions will expire worthless in 21 months. The options- although trading at only 3 cents - are looking overvaluedrelative to the share price. We shall hold our existingoptions in Cool or Cosy but would not recommend newpurchases of options at the current time.
(The shares - on a P/E of 10-12 - could become an attractive recovery situation if the business improves inthe years ahead, but they would need to recover stronglyover the next 21 months to create value in the options.) Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Financial Resources (codes FRL and FRLO).
the short term but to then sell on-market in July or early Financial Resources 75% owned subsidiary QuikRent
August to realise the gains on this investment”. If Pty launched its Quikcard, which is a branded VISA card
investors haven't already sold then the best action at and combined personal loan, in June. All processing and present may be to exercise the options to buy Image funding will be provided by Police & Nurses Credit
Society with QuikRent marketing the card to national
The are two reasons for this: Firstly, the options retail groups. By the end of July the company had 28 currently trade at a discount relative to the share price.
groups offering its Quikcard at 1400 sites.
The shares are bid at 46 cents, so the intrinsic value of the The group's mining contracting subsidiary, FRL
options is 25 cents less or 21 cents - but the options are Contracting, has won new work at the St. Ives gold
quoted with a bid of only 17 cents. Rather than sell for mine to construct the Heap Leach Pad Stage 3. Work 17 cents it is better to pay 25 cents to exercise the option started in July and will continue until early 2007. This and then sell the shares at 46 cents (plus or minus any contract will help double the contracting revenues to fluctuation in the share price) to realise a net 21 cents.
over $20 million for the year to June 2007.
Secondly, Image Resources is planning to spin off a new We first reviewed Financial Resources in November company called Magnetic Resources NL, distributing
2004 when the shares were trading at 19 cents and the these shares to holders of Image Resources shares. This options traded at 4 cents. Both the shares and options spin off may add value or help to support the Image have exactly the same prices today! Three years ago the Resources share price over the next month or two.
options were very under-valued, but their shorter Marengo Mining (codes MGO and MGOO).
remaining life (i.e. 21 months until 31 May 2008) means The company has drilled the first five holes, or about 10- 15% of its current exploration program, at the Yandera The options still remain attractive for new purchases.
project. Inspection of the first two holes shows they They offer a very high leverage of 2.79 times and require “intersected broad zones of mineralisation” at what was a “break-even rate” of only 14% per annum growth in previously believed to be the south-east limit of the the share price before they start to quickly increase in Gremi Zone. Further drilling will continue to test the value. Financial Resources is making progress at building Gremi Zone and nearby Omora Zone which have “good up its business, so there is good potential for the shares near surface” mineralisation and “could form the basis to appreciate in value over the next 21 months.
for a starter pit” mining operation.
Marengo Mining options are fairly valued, offer reasonable leverage (i.e. 1.67 times) and require a low10% per annum rate of appreciation in the share pricebefore an investment will “break-even” and then start toincrease in value. There is still 18 months until the finalexercise/expiry date - so if Marengo Mining can advanceits exploration over that period then the shares (and theoptions) could be re-rated strongly. “Buy”.
Metroland Australia (codes MTD and MTDO).
The company has entered a conditional contract to
refurbish its building at 16-20 Mountain Road, Ultimo,
into offices and sell it for $19 million. The building was
Global Mining Investments (codes GMI and GMIO).
purchased in June 2005 for $8.45 million and refurbishing These options reach their final exercise/expiry date in a little over three months - on 30 November 2006. At that The September 2005 contract for the sale of the time we will have the right to buy a share at 100 cents.
Neutral Bay Property was settled on 7 July for $12.2 Global Mining Investments shares currently trade around 135 cents (and have a fully diluted net asset value The company has also entered a conditional contract of 141 cents) which gives the options an intrinsic value to purchase the properties at 218-240 Queen Street, of 35 cents. Investors can either (1) exercise the options Campbelltown for $14.8 million (plus GST). The and remain an investor in the shares or (2) sell the property on a 6,579m2 site has 24 tenants and a current options on-market to realise their value.
gross rental income of $1,224,000. The local council is Global Mining Investments is a suitable investment encouraging the regeneration of the area and Metroland for investors wishing to maintain an exposure to global sees “significant scope to improve the current income” mining shares - so exercising the options is an attractive and “intends to extensively redevelop the property”.
choice in this situation. Of course, investors who do not We first reviewed Metroland Australia in February have sufficient cash to exercise all of their options - or 2005 but since then the shares have fallen 36% to 14 who would find themselves over-exposed to this company cents and the more volatile options are down 78% to 1 or sector - should look to realise some of their options cent. At this price, however, the options still offer an on-market over the next few months (or sell off some of attractive - albeit high risk/high return - speculative the shares after exercising the options).
investment. So higher risk investors could consider asmall dollar investment in the options, if they are Image Resources (code IMA and IMAO).
available. Unfortunately, at current prices the options Our recommendation in May was to “hold the options in are inactively traded. (Continued on Page 12) Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd Warrant/Options (Continued from Page 11) Stirling Products (codes STI and STIO).
ORT (codes ORT and ORTO).
Cash short Stirling Products has raised $2.3 million ORT holds $1.6 million in cash - or about 1.07 cents per from two placements totalling 20.0 million shares at share. These options still have 18 months until their 11½ cents (plus 10.0 million options to buy shares at 20 final exercise/expiry date - but are unlikely to have any Stirling Products has signed the contract formalising the Heads of Agreement announced in December 2005 Orchid Capital (codes ORC and ORCO).
with South African based Afgri. Afgri will fully fund
Orchid Capital's 23.2% owned Jiva Kata Resort
studies on poultry, swine, sheep and cattle required to Company has sold its hotel property in Phuket, Thailand.
obtain registration and commercialisation of Orchid Capital's share of the first instalment was ThB R-salbutamol in South Africa. Stirling Products will 17,632,000 (A$608,000) and up to another ThB own the production registrations and trade marks, 23,200,000 (A$800,000) over the next 16 months, subject appointing Afgri as its sole agent in South Africa for up to conditions relating to enlarging the hotel. This will realise a significant gain over the investment's book Stirling Products joint venture with Equine
HealthCare of Denmark will incorporate a joint venture
Orchid Capital is continuing to focus upon its new company, Pulmovet ApS, which will then raise
strategy of investing in small Asian companies which additional capital in Europe to fund trials for the hope to list on stock exchanges over the next few years.
registration of its treatment in Europe and the United Net asset backing per share is 2.95 cents.
States for heaves in horses. The treatment uses a device Our remaining Orchid Capital options will probably invented by Equine HealthCare and Stirling Products' expire worthless on 30 November 2006. Fortunately we previously sold around two-thirds for a significant Unfortunately the share price has fallen so much that it would now need to appreciate 107% per annum over the next 16 months for the options to have any value.
That is not impossible - as this is a very volatile situationand the Stirling Products share price could appreciatevery strongly - but is not likely. We shall continue tohold our Stirling Products options but realistically weshould expect that they will expire worthless, so wewould not make new purchases at this time.
Total Return Index for All Listed Shares
The next issue of Market Analysis will be emailed in five weeks time on Monday September 11, 2006.
The print version will be delivered later that week, depending upon printing and postal delivery times.
MARKET ANALYSIS is published 12 times per year by Securities Research Company Limited, P.O. Box 34-162, Birkenhead, Auckland.
Subscribe online at www.stockmarket.co.nz or www.australia-stockmarket.com or email james@stockmarket.co.nz.
Readers are advised that they should not assume that every recommendation made in the future will be profitable or equal the performance ofrecommendations made in the past. A summary of All prior recommendations is available is published on the website. The information presentedhas been obtained from original and published sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
The entire contents are copyright. Reproduction in whole or part is strictly forbidden without the approval of the publisher.
Copyright Securities Research Company Ltd

Source: http://www.stockmarket.co.nz/backissues/ma410.pdf

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